Wow! Here's another example of why it's better not to let me think about things. When it came time to pick my mfi stocks in January, one of the stocks that was randomly picked was Harvest Natural Resources (HNR). Now, when my stocks are picked, I do take a look to see what they are. When I saw that most of their revenue comes from managing oil and gas fields in Venezuela, I immediately didn't want to buy them. I've followed Venezuela's descent into communism and totalitarianism under Hugo Chavez very closely and have been disgusted by the outright theft that Chavez has been perpetrating in the name of the "people." His moves are guaranteed to destroy that country economically. So, it was with significant trepidation that I chose to trust the mfi system and bought HNR.
It wallowed around break-even to a slight loss, which I considered an achievement in itself. I had decided that I would be ecstatic if I didn't lose more than 10% on that particular stock.
Well, today, the Venezuelan National Assembly approved its contract with HNR and voted to release significant funds that were due to HNR in arrears. The result is that the shares surged over 37% today, placing me at a 33.28% gain since early January.
Now, anything can happen, especially in Venezuela under that thug. For all I know, in two days, he'll decide this was a bad thing and will reverse it, because laws and property rights mean nothing to him. But, for now, it goes to show that it's a good thing I don't actually pick 'em. Because I absolutely would have missed this one. Now, my natural inclination is to pocket this gain, but I will continue to follow MFI.
-A
Weighted gain since inception (3/6/06) 28.59% vs. S&P 500 14.67%
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
3 comments:
Good stuff! I can't disagree with your approach or results. I just can't let go and be random like you.
I started the same way as you, reading Smart Money in Feb of 06. Funny, I also read the Wheel of Time (1st 7 books).
I wish you continued success, I'll be interested to see wht stocks Random.Org buys for you next month.
MG
Nice Blog. I will add this one to my favs along with MG's.
Keep up the good work!
-Travis
Thanks to both of you! MG, letting go is probably the key word here. JG writes that you have to believe MFI works deep down. I think you do, based on your dedication to it so far, and I do as well, even before I tried it. It just resonated with me as such a common sense approach.
All in all, I concluded I don't have the time or the inclination to do enough research that my educated picks could have a chance of beating random picks of MFI stocks.
Still, as we've said many times, the proof is in 3 - 5 year results, not 1 - 2 years. I'll be watching your blog with interest as well.
-A
ps. I can understand why you stopped reading WOT at 7 books. Robert Jordan started meandering in his story lines. He's started to pull everything back together and is supposed to finish the series with Book 12, which he's currently writing. Unfortunately, he came down with a tough disease, amyloidosis, and it's uncertain if he'll finish. Check out his blog at www.dragonmount.com/robertjordan
Post a Comment