Found the reason that IVAC's heading south:
Intevac Slides on Disappointing Outlook.
Well, at least that explains it. That might also explain why they chose to have their earnings announcement late in the day.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Let's talk about something other than declines...
Well, actually, I'm still going to talk about declines, but not just how much stocks have gone down in the past few weeks. I was curious how many positions I hold that are sitting with a loss but are still showing on the MFI screener, implying that they have a potential to rise. I have a feeling some of them may not rise. Let's see what we have:
ASPV, 3.84% loss, purchased 11/06 - still on list. They're actually scheduled to release earnings tomorrow. They recently announced a restructuring. My favorite sentence in this press release: "This reorganization reflects the company's plan to refocus resources and create a more flexible global platform for exploiting new product opportunities through partnerships or acquisitions." Someone paid a lot for that MBA and they're determined to use it! I recall an MBA course in my master's program where I used to keep count of the number of "buzz-words" that the professor used by drawing a little fly in my notebook. By the end of the semester, my notebook was infested. Sounding fancy almost always implies that you're trying to put lipstick on a pig. As I've made clear time and again, I don't follow any of these companies closely enough to make a judgement, and I trust in the MFI method, but I worry about language like that. On the bright side, ASPV expects revenues to rise.
IVAC, 13.17% loss, 7/07 - it's simply too early for me to get worked up about this, since I bought it just before the market decline. They released earnings yesterday and slightly beat analyst estimates. However, for some reason this article says the stock declined 12% in after hours trading yesterday. I have no idea yet why.
KSWS, 18.98% loss, 3/07 - I think this one is on its way to dropping off the list. The list hasn't been updated for 2Q earnings yet, which fell. Additionally, they're predicting a further fall in 3Q. Don't know if this one will recover by the time a year is up and I have no idea if it will end up on the new list.
MTEX, 37.47% loss, 5/07 - Don't even get me started on this one. Class action law suit followed by poor 2Q earnings. I think this is another one that will drop off as soon as earnings are updated on the screener. Even if it doesn't, it's been beaten down because of the lawsuit and likely will stay that way for a long time.
So, why don't I move on? Well, again, as I've said over and over, if I start guessing, I'll probably make things worse (overall). There are many gains I would have missed. My favorite example remains FDG. As I said previously, I chose to hold it after the one year was up and it was still in the list, even though I was sitting on a nearly 23% loss. I even bought more. Since then, it's been one of my high flyers, up 27% since 5/7/07 (vs. a 1.97% loss in the S&P index fund).
BUT...I will be very surprised if MTEX recovers. We'll see. It's got a long way to go in my MFI fund.
NOOF, 4.17% loss, 3/07 - Here's what Motley Fool has to say about NOOF. Showing just how much I look into things on MFI, I didn't even know this was an adult entertainment stock. Should I worry if that industry has trouble making money? They're announcing earnings on 8/8. We'll see what happens.
PACR, 9.41% loss, 7/07 - Another one that's too early to get worked up about. Interestingly, while looking up information, I came across a recommendation on forbes.com from 7/18 recommending this stock. That's not the interesting part. The interesting part is that the most recent recommendation on the site is to invest in FCX, which I'm already sitting on a 56% gain since 11/06. That one is no longer on MFI, but I wouldn't mind seeing it rise some more.
PNCL, 3.64% loss, 3/07 - My superstar from Tranche 1 (3/06), which gave me a 145% gain (some of which I realized) has been hovering around its 3/07 "purchase" price. It still strikes me as a solid company, though, and I think things will improve. Hmm, I'll have to remember to look back at this post later on to see if my ideas are worth anything...
That's it for stocks in a loss position still on the list. We'll see what happens because I do think a few are going to fall off the list.
ASPV, 3.84% loss, purchased 11/06 - still on list. They're actually scheduled to release earnings tomorrow. They recently announced a restructuring. My favorite sentence in this press release: "This reorganization reflects the company's plan to refocus resources and create a more flexible global platform for exploiting new product opportunities through partnerships or acquisitions." Someone paid a lot for that MBA and they're determined to use it! I recall an MBA course in my master's program where I used to keep count of the number of "buzz-words" that the professor used by drawing a little fly in my notebook. By the end of the semester, my notebook was infested. Sounding fancy almost always implies that you're trying to put lipstick on a pig. As I've made clear time and again, I don't follow any of these companies closely enough to make a judgement, and I trust in the MFI method, but I worry about language like that. On the bright side, ASPV expects revenues to rise.
IVAC, 13.17% loss, 7/07 - it's simply too early for me to get worked up about this, since I bought it just before the market decline. They released earnings yesterday and slightly beat analyst estimates. However, for some reason this article says the stock declined 12% in after hours trading yesterday. I have no idea yet why.
KSWS, 18.98% loss, 3/07 - I think this one is on its way to dropping off the list. The list hasn't been updated for 2Q earnings yet, which fell. Additionally, they're predicting a further fall in 3Q. Don't know if this one will recover by the time a year is up and I have no idea if it will end up on the new list.
MTEX, 37.47% loss, 5/07 - Don't even get me started on this one. Class action law suit followed by poor 2Q earnings. I think this is another one that will drop off as soon as earnings are updated on the screener. Even if it doesn't, it's been beaten down because of the lawsuit and likely will stay that way for a long time.
So, why don't I move on? Well, again, as I've said over and over, if I start guessing, I'll probably make things worse (overall). There are many gains I would have missed. My favorite example remains FDG. As I said previously, I chose to hold it after the one year was up and it was still in the list, even though I was sitting on a nearly 23% loss. I even bought more. Since then, it's been one of my high flyers, up 27% since 5/7/07 (vs. a 1.97% loss in the S&P index fund).
BUT...I will be very surprised if MTEX recovers. We'll see. It's got a long way to go in my MFI fund.
NOOF, 4.17% loss, 3/07 - Here's what Motley Fool has to say about NOOF. Showing just how much I look into things on MFI, I didn't even know this was an adult entertainment stock. Should I worry if that industry has trouble making money? They're announcing earnings on 8/8. We'll see what happens.
PACR, 9.41% loss, 7/07 - Another one that's too early to get worked up about. Interestingly, while looking up information, I came across a recommendation on forbes.com from 7/18 recommending this stock. That's not the interesting part. The interesting part is that the most recent recommendation on the site is to invest in FCX, which I'm already sitting on a 56% gain since 11/06. That one is no longer on MFI, but I wouldn't mind seeing it rise some more.
PNCL, 3.64% loss, 3/07 - My superstar from Tranche 1 (3/06), which gave me a 145% gain (some of which I realized) has been hovering around its 3/07 "purchase" price. It still strikes me as a solid company, though, and I think things will improve. Hmm, I'll have to remember to look back at this post later on to see if my ideas are worth anything...
That's it for stocks in a loss position still on the list. We'll see what happens because I do think a few are going to fall off the list.
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Perspective
9.34%. That was the amount that the MFI fund fell in the last two weeks. 8.46% in the past week alone. Rough week? Well, depends on how you look at it I suppose. The fund gave back pretty much all of its gains since May. But, since Jan. 1, it's still up 7.54%. For the trailing 12 months, up a whopping 38.4%. And, since inception, still up 20.88% (18.07% on a weighted basis...as a reminder, the "MFI Fund" is the share price if one were to treat my portfolio like a mutual fund. It calculates gains based on "share price". Weighted is based on the actual timing of the dollars invested).
Even without comparing to the S&P 500, these are pretty nice numbers. S&P was 3.87% since Jan 1, 16.6% for trailing 12 months, and 15.25% since MFI fund inception (9.55% weighted).
Do I wish I had sold WNR when it was up 200% only three weeks ago vs. 142% now? Sure. Could I have predicted that? No. And I probably would have sold when it was up 100% (or lower) and would have missed that extra portion of gains. It works both ways. I continue to believe in the MFI method.
Even without comparing to the S&P 500, these are pretty nice numbers. S&P was 3.87% since Jan 1, 16.6% for trailing 12 months, and 15.25% since MFI fund inception (9.55% weighted).
Do I wish I had sold WNR when it was up 200% only three weeks ago vs. 142% now? Sure. Could I have predicted that? No. And I probably would have sold when it was up 100% (or lower) and would have missed that extra portion of gains. It works both ways. I continue to believe in the MFI method.
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Maybe I shouldn't go on vacation...
...or, The Two Week Massacre! I was away last week and haven't had a chance until tonight to update all my analyses, but saw when I got home on Sunday that it had been a bad week for my portfolio. Then, this week continued the slide, mostly driven by a significant decline in WNR, my high flyer (but today JAKK dropped 15% after its earnings dropped).
It's funny, I'm sitting on a 148% gain on WNR, and I'm upset because I was at 200%. Seems the driver of the decline has been skittishness (is that a word??) about the near-term prospects for refineries. FTO fell behind as well.
Basically everything went down, with few exceptions (and the broader market followed suit this week).
That's the bad news. Good news is that I'm still well ahead of the benchmark. Weighted return since inception for MFI = 23.23% vs. 12.88% for S&P 500. Average annual gain on all open and closed tranches (not annualizing open tranches) = 13.54% for MFI vs. 9.87% for VFINX.
Maybe I should just go back on vacation...I prefer the rollercoasters on the boardwalk!
It's funny, I'm sitting on a 148% gain on WNR, and I'm upset because I was at 200%. Seems the driver of the decline has been skittishness (is that a word??) about the near-term prospects for refineries. FTO fell behind as well.
Basically everything went down, with few exceptions (and the broader market followed suit this week).
That's the bad news. Good news is that I'm still well ahead of the benchmark. Weighted return since inception for MFI = 23.23% vs. 12.88% for S&P 500. Average annual gain on all open and closed tranches (not annualizing open tranches) = 13.54% for MFI vs. 9.87% for VFINX.
Maybe I should just go back on vacation...I prefer the rollercoasters on the boardwalk!
Friday, July 13, 2007
AEO follow-up
American Eagle (AEO) was my first MFI stock to "hit", jumping up early in my holding period and growing relatively steadily. I ended up with a handsome 49.8% gain realized in March.
I was just reading an article on the stock and was interested to see it has barely budged since I sold it in March. AEO was no longer in the MFI list, so I didn't keep it. Since then, the stock has declined 2.8%. Not much, but that included a 3 month run where it declined by 13.1%, so it was apparently up at first. It will be interesting to see by March of next year what the ultimate result will be for the year, mainly as a study in what happens to a stock after you sell it when it drops off the list.
I think I'll set up a tracking portfolio for that, but not for a little while as I'm off on a vacation next week.
-A
I was just reading an article on the stock and was interested to see it has barely budged since I sold it in March. AEO was no longer in the MFI list, so I didn't keep it. Since then, the stock has declined 2.8%. Not much, but that included a 3 month run where it declined by 13.1%, so it was apparently up at first. It will be interesting to see by March of next year what the ultimate result will be for the year, mainly as a study in what happens to a stock after you sell it when it drops off the list.
I think I'll set up a tracking portfolio for that, but not for a little while as I'm off on a vacation next week.
-A
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Need a new word
I'm getting tired of using the word "tranche." It's actually an inside joke (which doesn't make sense to use here) because I have a client who loved to use the word tranche, only he used the European "traunche"... this is America dammit!! (On an aside, my nephew plays the French Horn (and no, he doesn't get beat up regularly) and I informed him that we would be calling it the Freedom Horn from here on)
Still, "group"? "Batch"? "Desperate attempt to make money"? Invent a word?
Still, "group"? "Batch"? "Desperate attempt to make money"? Invent a word?
Monday, July 9, 2007
New Tranche!
(First of all, I found the workaround for the title thing...turns out this is a known problem they're trying to fix...)
So, what did random.org pick for me today? (drum roll please...)
EPIQ
IVAC
LRCX
PACR
PBT
We'll see how it does. Final tally for the 7/06 tranche, 12.61% gain vs. VFINX gain of 22.55%. My first laggard tranche. (of course, I'd take steady gains of 12.61% over many many years...)
Cumulative of closed tranches: 17.16% vs. VFINX at 10.52%
Cumulative closed and open: 22.8% vs. VFINX 16.1%
Weighted gain life to date: 29.34% vs. VFINX 13.91%
Best stock WNR at 196.55% and still climbing
Worst FORD at a closed loss of 53.87%
-A
So, what did random.org pick for me today? (drum roll please...)
EPIQ
IVAC
LRCX
PACR
PBT
We'll see how it does. Final tally for the 7/06 tranche, 12.61% gain vs. VFINX gain of 22.55%. My first laggard tranche. (of course, I'd take steady gains of 12.61% over many many years...)
Cumulative of closed tranches: 17.16% vs. VFINX at 10.52%
Cumulative closed and open: 22.8% vs. VFINX 16.1%
Weighted gain life to date: 29.34% vs. VFINX 13.91%
Best stock WNR at 196.55% and still climbing
Worst FORD at a closed loss of 53.87%
-A
Friday, July 6, 2007
Some go up...some go down
Big drop in MTEX today. Apparently, someone was misbehaving. Take a look:
Texas AG Sues Mannatech
Caused a 23.44% decline in the stock today, and for me went from being approx. 5% up to 19% down. This was from my May acquisitions, which were beating the benchmark by 10 points. Now it's only leading the benchmark by 6 points. The overall fund is only down today 0.23%. Let's hear it for diversification!
Meanwhile, WNR has continued its ascent. As of today it is up 192% since my November acquisition. Nice.
Monday is the big day for the new July tranche. The 7/06 group looks like it's ending up at 13.76% for the year vs. 22.55% for the benchmark, my first lower tranche (out of 3 complete now with this one).
-A
ps. for some reason this blog interface won't let me type a title today. oh, well. (fixed on 7/10)
Texas AG Sues Mannatech
Caused a 23.44% decline in the stock today, and for me went from being approx. 5% up to 19% down. This was from my May acquisitions, which were beating the benchmark by 10 points. Now it's only leading the benchmark by 6 points. The overall fund is only down today 0.23%. Let's hear it for diversification!
Meanwhile, WNR has continued its ascent. As of today it is up 192% since my November acquisition. Nice.
Monday is the big day for the new July tranche. The 7/06 group looks like it's ending up at 13.76% for the year vs. 22.55% for the benchmark, my first lower tranche (out of 3 complete now with this one).
-A
ps. for some reason this blog interface won't let me type a title today. oh, well. (fixed on 7/10)
Sunday, July 1, 2007
On Benchmarking
There was an interesting article in the WSJ this week about picking the proper index to compare your investing results against. One point it made was that comparing to the S&P 500 is often an improper benchmark since it is 500 large U.S. stocks, whereas a portfolio may consist of small caps, mid-caps, foreign, etc., all of which have done very well over the past few years.
Since the MFI Fund that I am maintaining is primarily small caps, with a very few mid-caps, a more accurate benchmark would likely be the Russell 2000 index. The article goes on to state that usually the best benchmark to use for your overall investment strategy is a combination of benchmarks to match your overall asset allocation strategy. (On a personal note, when I started my portfolio, I was primarily comparing it to the Fidelity Freedom target retirement fund that is a core holding in my retirement plan, since it is where I "would have" put this money had I not started investing under MFI, so that is basically a diversified benchmark).
Well, I'm going to stick to the S&P for a couple of reasons. One, I don't feel like tracking another benchmark (how's that for honesty?). Two, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 have not been so far apart as to make a difference for the amount I've been fortunate enough to beat them by this past year and 4 months. Three, most funds compare themselves to the S&P 500 so I'm really only being consistent.
But it's mostly the first reason. :)
-A
Since the MFI Fund that I am maintaining is primarily small caps, with a very few mid-caps, a more accurate benchmark would likely be the Russell 2000 index. The article goes on to state that usually the best benchmark to use for your overall investment strategy is a combination of benchmarks to match your overall asset allocation strategy. (On a personal note, when I started my portfolio, I was primarily comparing it to the Fidelity Freedom target retirement fund that is a core holding in my retirement plan, since it is where I "would have" put this money had I not started investing under MFI, so that is basically a diversified benchmark).
Well, I'm going to stick to the S&P for a couple of reasons. One, I don't feel like tracking another benchmark (how's that for honesty?). Two, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 have not been so far apart as to make a difference for the amount I've been fortunate enough to beat them by this past year and 4 months. Three, most funds compare themselves to the S&P 500 so I'm really only being consistent.
But it's mostly the first reason. :)
-A
Q/E 6/30/07 reporting
Well, since I'm treating my portfolio as if it were a mock fund, it's time for end of quarter reporting. Share price as of 6/29/07 = $55.74. 52 week high was $55.91 on 6/19/07. 52 week low was $37.08 on 7/28/06.
Period, MFI return, S&P 500 return
1 month, 7.50%, -1.78%
3 month, 10.49%, 5.81%
6 month (YTD), 15.42%, 6.00%
1 year, 40.07%, 18.36%
Since inception (3/6/06), 29.74%, 17.61%
Average annual since inception, 22.31%, 13.21%
Current 10 largest holdings:
Western Refining (WNR) 7.3%
Labor Ready (LRW) 4.8%
Fording Canadian Coal Trust (FDG) 4.7%
Jakks Pacific (JAKK) 4.2%
Pinnacle Airlines (PNCL) 4.1%
Axcan Pharma Inc (AXCA) 4.1%
Frontier Oil Corp (FTO) 4.0%
Mannatech Inc (MTEX) 4.0%
Mocon Inc (MOCO) 3.9%
Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) 3.8%
Period, MFI return, S&P 500 return
1 month, 7.50%, -1.78%
3 month, 10.49%, 5.81%
6 month (YTD), 15.42%, 6.00%
1 year, 40.07%, 18.36%
Since inception (3/6/06), 29.74%, 17.61%
Average annual since inception, 22.31%, 13.21%
Current 10 largest holdings:
Western Refining (WNR) 7.3%
Labor Ready (LRW) 4.8%
Fording Canadian Coal Trust (FDG) 4.7%
Jakks Pacific (JAKK) 4.2%
Pinnacle Airlines (PNCL) 4.1%
Axcan Pharma Inc (AXCA) 4.1%
Frontier Oil Corp (FTO) 4.0%
Mannatech Inc (MTEX) 4.0%
Mocon Inc (MOCO) 3.9%
Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) 3.8%
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