Let's talk about something other than declines...

Well, actually, I'm still going to talk about declines, but not just how much stocks have gone down in the past few weeks. I was curious how many positions I hold that are sitting with a loss but are still showing on the MFI screener, implying that they have a potential to rise. I have a feeling some of them may not rise. Let's see what we have:

ASPV, 3.84% loss, purchased 11/06 - still on list. They're actually scheduled to release earnings tomorrow. They recently announced a restructuring. My favorite sentence in this press release: "This reorganization reflects the company's plan to refocus resources and create a more flexible global platform for exploiting new product opportunities through partnerships or acquisitions." Someone paid a lot for that MBA and they're determined to use it! I recall an MBA course in my master's program where I used to keep count of the number of "buzz-words" that the professor used by drawing a little fly in my notebook. By the end of the semester, my notebook was infested. Sounding fancy almost always implies that you're trying to put lipstick on a pig. As I've made clear time and again, I don't follow any of these companies closely enough to make a judgement, and I trust in the MFI method, but I worry about language like that. On the bright side, ASPV expects revenues to rise.

IVAC, 13.17% loss, 7/07 - it's simply too early for me to get worked up about this, since I bought it just before the market decline. They released earnings yesterday and slightly beat analyst estimates. However, for some reason this article says the stock declined 12% in after hours trading yesterday. I have no idea yet why.

KSWS, 18.98% loss, 3/07 - I think this one is on its way to dropping off the list. The list hasn't been updated for 2Q earnings yet, which fell. Additionally, they're predicting a further fall in 3Q. Don't know if this one will recover by the time a year is up and I have no idea if it will end up on the new list.

MTEX, 37.47% loss, 5/07 - Don't even get me started on this one. Class action law suit followed by poor 2Q earnings. I think this is another one that will drop off as soon as earnings are updated on the screener. Even if it doesn't, it's been beaten down because of the lawsuit and likely will stay that way for a long time.

So, why don't I move on? Well, again, as I've said over and over, if I start guessing, I'll probably make things worse (overall). There are many gains I would have missed. My favorite example remains FDG. As I said previously, I chose to hold it after the one year was up and it was still in the list, even though I was sitting on a nearly 23% loss. I even bought more. Since then, it's been one of my high flyers, up 27% since 5/7/07 (vs. a 1.97% loss in the S&P index fund).

BUT...I will be very surprised if MTEX recovers. We'll see. It's got a long way to go in my MFI fund.

NOOF, 4.17% loss, 3/07 - Here's what Motley Fool has to say about NOOF. Showing just how much I look into things on MFI, I didn't even know this was an adult entertainment stock. Should I worry if that industry has trouble making money? They're announcing earnings on 8/8. We'll see what happens.

PACR, 9.41% loss, 7/07 - Another one that's too early to get worked up about. Interestingly, while looking up information, I came across a recommendation on forbes.com from 7/18 recommending this stock. That's not the interesting part. The interesting part is that the most recent recommendation on the site is to invest in FCX, which I'm already sitting on a 56% gain since 11/06. That one is no longer on MFI, but I wouldn't mind seeing it rise some more.

PNCL, 3.64% loss, 3/07 - My superstar from Tranche 1 (3/06), which gave me a 145% gain (some of which I realized) has been hovering around its 3/07 "purchase" price. It still strikes me as a solid company, though, and I think things will improve. Hmm, I'll have to remember to look back at this post later on to see if my ideas are worth anything...

That's it for stocks in a loss position still on the list. We'll see what happens because I do think a few are going to fall off the list.