Well, I'll start with the good news. On a weighted average, I'm still up over the S&P 500. That matters more, since that's my "real money" compared to if it had been invested in an S&P index fund. Weighted average return since inception = 12.22% vs S&P weighted of 9.81%. This is thanks to the earlier days when I did lag the index.
The sad thing is that yesterday, for the first time, my tranche analysis was below the benchmark (VFINX). Today it stands at MFI tranches (open and closed) = 6.95% and VFINX tranches = 7.84% (it was worse today than yesterday because the MFI fund went down while the market went up).
Today's sad news is the MFI fund's price per share over the inception price fell below the S&P 500 gain for the first time since it crossed it on 12/22/06. MFI gain since inception (non-weighted) = 14.9%. S&P 500 = 15.53%. The fund has lost nearly 15% in value since 7/19. Only three weeks.
Year to date the MFI fund is up 2.21% vs. the S&P 500 at 4.12%.
It will be interesting to see what happens next, but I hope the bloodletting is done. A 15% decline is plenty.
2 comments:
No doubt it has been a trying stretch. I just read your blog and Tony's blog and it seems we're all at about the same place. I think your random approach is fine, not sure I'd overlay with anything. Good luck.
MG
Thanks, MG. Yeah, I don't plan to change anything. As we've said many times, it's not a year and a half that proves anything. It's 3 - 5 years. I've been following your blog and I'm also excited about the buying opportunities...BUT, I won't step out of the system. 9/7 is my next buy date. It will be what it will be.
btw, I took a look at Phil Town's book. It seemed interesting, but I genuinely don't have the time to watch things enough for that system. It all made sense, but it does require a bit more diligence than I have time for (I don't buy the "15 minutes a day" tag).
-A
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